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Norway and Serbia meet for the first time since for this crucial qualifier. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips. Serbia meanwhile, lost only two of their last 13 on the road, drawing four of their most recent seven games on their travels since October

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But no matter how good you are at self-promotion, eventually you have to produce. Of course not. So why believe a service that makes similar claims? Billy Walters is widely regarded as the most successful sports bettor of the past 30 years. Does it shock you to know that Walters has gone on record saying he had hoped to hit 55 percent of his bets over the course of an NFL season?

Our service is targeted towards sophisticated bettors who realize that losing is just as much a part of this game as winning is. Please make sure you have the necessary bankroll, money management skills, and discipline to successfully utilize the service.

Past results are no guarantee of future results. This analyzes line movement and public betting data to identify which plays the "sharps" are backing. This is sometimes referred to as the "smart money. These let you play out your own match-ups for these sports whenever you want.

A key note here is this is solely based on the "hotness" of each team hence HeatCheck - it pulls from each team's most recent game performances and extrapolates the data. Don't be surprised if the results are significantly different than our standard full-season models, or quite a bit off from the market lines. This analyzes season-long performance from each of the models and outputs their optimal minimum value points. In other words, it shows you a quick summary of performance for each model where you can look and decide at what minimum values you want to play each model.

For example, you may see that when the value is 4. Each model is automatically tracked and users have access to a backtesting tool to view every projection made this season. Past results can be viewed day-by-day, or backtested with a variety of custom criteria.

While most MLB models make projections based on how a team's been hitting as a whole, our offensive projections are based on each and every player included in that particular team's lineup for the day. This means our model waits for each lineup to be posted usually within a few hours before first pitch , then analyzes it on a player-by-player basis. This method is to ensure the highest accuracy in predicting a team's performance. The challenge of MLB is analyzing advanced data to determine which players have been lucky and unlucky in relation to their actual performance.

Much like a player projection system, our model identifies a "true" performance level for players and projects games accordingly. It's a stat that takes a stab at measuring overall efficiency on both the player and team level. From NBA. In fact, a team's PIE rating and a team's winning percentage correlate at an R square of.

We also believe recent team play is a better predictor of a team's future performance than their play from several months ago, and as such, recency is more heavily weighted. Our NBA model doesn't care about a team's record. It objectively measures a team's efficiency throughout each game, from start to finish, possession by possession - regardless of whether it ended as a win or loss. A team being on an slide doesn't mean much if they played top teams competitively.

Conversely, a team being on a 4 game win streak where they barely beat bottom-feeding teams doesn't paint the whole picture either. Objective measures of efficiency are what gives our model the ability to find value in over and underpriced lines in the market as a result of the general public's ignorance.

College basketball teams only play about 30 games with the same player group before the season is over and turnover begins, so interpreting the right metrics is important for any model. How we generally interpret basketball here at SMA is by putting more weight into metrics with less volatility than whether or not the ball falls into the hoop.. Shot proximity is important in this regard, so for example, the model doesn't like long two point jumpshots.

The college three-point line is about 2 feet closer than the NBA's depending where you shoot along the arc , so the most efficient teams need to be taking threes or taking high-percentage, close-proximity shots. Team passing abilities are important along these lines of thinking too, and so is offensive rebounding ability. There's just not enough of a sample size to develop a reliable regression equation for 1 team with new components every year in one ish game season.

While every model acknowledges defense as important, in many of them it's being slightly undervalued. Free throws are important in college basketball. Teams get into the bonus and double-bonus quick, and poor free throw shooting is an easy way to give away possession after possession. In line with free throws, fouls are important too, but also volatile because you're talking about a different crew of striped shirts and whistles in every game.

We put heavier weight into recent play. College teams "gelling" is a real concept with such high year-to-year turnover. Our NHL model uses a number of advanced metrics to formulate its projections. Fenwick is almost the exact same as Corsi, but it doesn't count blocked shots-the reason for this is that it is entirely possible that blocking shots is a skill, and not just a series of random events.

We take metrics from these data sources and pour them into our NHL model, which produces game probabilities. DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and and much more than five yards on third-and Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent.

Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. This method of advanced evaluation is then poured into our equations, allowing our model to produce specific game projections. FEI is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Kind of like college basketball, with so many teams in college football of varying talent levels, it's important to weigh each performance only as much as the opponent's team strength dictates.

Approximately 20, possessions are tracked each year in college football. FEI filters out first-half "clock-kills" and end-of-game "garbage time" drives and scores. Defensive FEI DFEI is value generated per opponent offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency STE is the average value generated per non-garbage possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units.

This method of advanced evaluation of college football teams is then poured into our equations, allowing our model to produce specific game projections. Our WNBA model objectively measures a team's efficiency throughout each game, from start to finish, possession by possession - then develops projections based on that efficiency. It factors in service and return strength by a number of metrics scraped from source stat sites, as well as a player's court surface strength, incorporating each player's recent form.

It generates win probabilities, then compares the probabilities to the implied probability from the current line. That's where value is derived. Our CBB HeatCheck tool uses a number of pace-adjusted efficiency metrics, grabbing only from each team's last 4 games, to project the outcome of any match-up you want.

Since the system is extrapolating from recent games only, you'll find some surprising results as the hottest teams have the biggest edge here. This will not always align with our standard CBB model, which considers a team's entire season. Our NBA HeatCheck tool uses a number of pace-adjusted efficiency metrics, grabbing only from each team's last 4 games, to project the outcome of any match-up you want. This will not always align with our standard NBA model, which considers a team's entire season.

Our team of predictive modeling engineers are sports fans, but also stats fanatics and analysts. We've been doing this for over 5 years, constantly updating our models so their forecasts have the best possible chance at edging the market. By purchasing our product, you agree to adhere to the termination agreement as outlined on this page, which is that you, the buyer, are not entitled to a refund of the upfront cost.

If a PayPal subscription is created, in order to not be charged any future reoccurring cost, please give ample time to be canceled out of any reoccurring billing system before the next scheduled charge to your account. By not canceling before a scheduled billing cycle, you agree that any reoccurring charges billed to you will be non-refundable. Customer will receive access instantly as we have a complete member's only back-end.

Customer will receive a welcome email confirming their membership, which was personally chosen when signing up. You will have access to an exclusive back-end website where you will log in with the login details you created. All website, products and services are provided as is, without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Our site does not warrant, guarantee, or make any representations regarding the use, or the results of the use, of the website, products, services or written materials in the terms of correctness, accuracy, reliability, correctness or otherwise.

The entire risk as to the results and performance of the web sites, products and services are assumed by you. If the web sites, products, services or written materials have caused damage or harm in any way, you, and not our company, assume the entire cost of all necessary servicing, repair or correction. This is the only warrant of any kind, either express or implied, that is made by our company. No oral or written information or advice given by our company shall create a warranty or in any way increase the scope of this warranty and you may not rely on such information or advice to do so unless expressly stated herein.

In order to use the Services, you may be required to register with our site by providing certain information about yourself, including an e-mail address. If you provide any information that is untrue, inaccurate, not current, or incomplete, SMA has reasonable grounds to suspect that such information is untrue, inaccurate, not current, or incomplete.

You expressly understand and agree that Sports Model Analytics shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or exemplary damages, including but not limited to damages for lost profits, goodwill, use, data or other intangible losses even if Sports Model Analytics has been advised of the possibility of such damages , resulting from: i the use or the inability to use the website, the services, or the content; ii the cost of procurement of substitute goods and services resulting from any goods, data, information or services purchased or obtained or messages received or transactions entered into through or from the website, the services, or the content; iii unauthorized access to or alteration of your transmission or date; iv statements or conduct of any third party on the website, the services, or the content.

These warranties exclude all incidental or consequential damages.

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Please make sure you have the necessary bankroll, money management skills, and discipline to successfully utilize the service. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Your selections are great, really. Thank you again. This has to be the best service I have come across in many years, so looking forward to following you throughout the year.

Through connections made in the early days of the offshore betting industry we have direct access to this sharp action. This is a marathon, not a sprint. What Makes Us Different? Browse around and take a look below for a peak into the world of predictive sports modeling. The nucleus of our site is our predictive modeling. We've built advanced models in every major sport and are continually improving each and expanding to other sports.

The wealth of data and analytics available in all of the major sports allows our models to formulate a projection of the outcome of these sporting events. This analyzes line movement and public betting data to identify which plays the "sharps" are backing. This is sometimes referred to as the "smart money. These let you play out your own match-ups for these sports whenever you want.

A key note here is this is solely based on the "hotness" of each team hence HeatCheck - it pulls from each team's most recent game performances and extrapolates the data. Don't be surprised if the results are significantly different than our standard full-season models, or quite a bit off from the market lines.

This analyzes season-long performance from each of the models and outputs their optimal minimum value points. In other words, it shows you a quick summary of performance for each model where you can look and decide at what minimum values you want to play each model.

For example, you may see that when the value is 4. Each model is automatically tracked and users have access to a backtesting tool to view every projection made this season. Past results can be viewed day-by-day, or backtested with a variety of custom criteria. While most MLB models make projections based on how a team's been hitting as a whole, our offensive projections are based on each and every player included in that particular team's lineup for the day.

This means our model waits for each lineup to be posted usually within a few hours before first pitch , then analyzes it on a player-by-player basis. This method is to ensure the highest accuracy in predicting a team's performance. The challenge of MLB is analyzing advanced data to determine which players have been lucky and unlucky in relation to their actual performance. Much like a player projection system, our model identifies a "true" performance level for players and projects games accordingly.

It's a stat that takes a stab at measuring overall efficiency on both the player and team level. From NBA. In fact, a team's PIE rating and a team's winning percentage correlate at an R square of. We also believe recent team play is a better predictor of a team's future performance than their play from several months ago, and as such, recency is more heavily weighted.

Our NBA model doesn't care about a team's record. It objectively measures a team's efficiency throughout each game, from start to finish, possession by possession - regardless of whether it ended as a win or loss. A team being on an slide doesn't mean much if they played top teams competitively.

Conversely, a team being on a 4 game win streak where they barely beat bottom-feeding teams doesn't paint the whole picture either. Objective measures of efficiency are what gives our model the ability to find value in over and underpriced lines in the market as a result of the general public's ignorance.

College basketball teams only play about 30 games with the same player group before the season is over and turnover begins, so interpreting the right metrics is important for any model. How we generally interpret basketball here at SMA is by putting more weight into metrics with less volatility than whether or not the ball falls into the hoop.. Shot proximity is important in this regard, so for example, the model doesn't like long two point jumpshots.

The college three-point line is about 2 feet closer than the NBA's depending where you shoot along the arc , so the most efficient teams need to be taking threes or taking high-percentage, close-proximity shots. Team passing abilities are important along these lines of thinking too, and so is offensive rebounding ability.

There's just not enough of a sample size to develop a reliable regression equation for 1 team with new components every year in one ish game season. While every model acknowledges defense as important, in many of them it's being slightly undervalued. Free throws are important in college basketball. Teams get into the bonus and double-bonus quick, and poor free throw shooting is an easy way to give away possession after possession. In line with free throws, fouls are important too, but also volatile because you're talking about a different crew of striped shirts and whistles in every game.

We put heavier weight into recent play. College teams "gelling" is a real concept with such high year-to-year turnover. Our NHL model uses a number of advanced metrics to formulate its projections. Fenwick is almost the exact same as Corsi, but it doesn't count blocked shots-the reason for this is that it is entirely possible that blocking shots is a skill, and not just a series of random events.

We take metrics from these data sources and pour them into our NHL model, which produces game probabilities. DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and and much more than five yards on third-and Red zone plays are worth more than other plays.

Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. This method of advanced evaluation is then poured into our equations, allowing our model to produce specific game projections. FEI is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency.

Kind of like college basketball, with so many teams in college football of varying talent levels, it's important to weigh each performance only as much as the opponent's team strength dictates. Approximately 20, possessions are tracked each year in college football. FEI filters out first-half "clock-kills" and end-of-game "garbage time" drives and scores.

Defensive FEI DFEI is value generated per opponent offensive non-garbage possession adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency STE is the average value generated per non-garbage possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units. This method of advanced evaluation of college football teams is then poured into our equations, allowing our model to produce specific game projections. Our WNBA model objectively measures a team's efficiency throughout each game, from start to finish, possession by possession - then develops projections based on that efficiency.

It factors in service and return strength by a number of metrics scraped from source stat sites, as well as a player's court surface strength, incorporating each player's recent form. It generates win probabilities, then compares the probabilities to the implied probability from the current line. That's where value is derived.

Our CBB HeatCheck tool uses a number of pace-adjusted efficiency metrics, grabbing only from each team's last 4 games, to project the outcome of any match-up you want. Since the system is extrapolating from recent games only, you'll find some surprising results as the hottest teams have the biggest edge here.

This will not always align with our standard CBB model, which considers a team's entire season. Our NBA HeatCheck tool uses a number of pace-adjusted efficiency metrics, grabbing only from each team's last 4 games, to project the outcome of any match-up you want.

This will not always align with our standard NBA model, which considers a team's entire season. Our team of predictive modeling engineers are sports fans, but also stats fanatics and analysts. We've been doing this for over 5 years, constantly updating our models so their forecasts have the best possible chance at edging the market. By purchasing our product, you agree to adhere to the termination agreement as outlined on this page, which is that you, the buyer, are not entitled to a refund of the upfront cost.

If a PayPal subscription is created, in order to not be charged any future reoccurring cost, please give ample time to be canceled out of any reoccurring billing system before the next scheduled charge to your account. By not canceling before a scheduled billing cycle, you agree that any reoccurring charges billed to you will be non-refundable.

Customer will receive access instantly as we have a complete member's only back-end. Customer will receive a welcome email confirming their membership, which was personally chosen when signing up. You will have access to an exclusive back-end website where you will log in with the login details you created. All website, products and services are provided as is, without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.

Our site does not warrant, guarantee, or make any representations regarding the use, or the results of the use, of the website, products, services or written materials in the terms of correctness, accuracy, reliability, correctness or otherwise. The entire risk as to the results and performance of the web sites, products and services are assumed by you.

If the web sites, products, services or written materials have caused damage or harm in any way, you, and not our company, assume the entire cost of all necessary servicing, repair or correction. This is the only warrant of any kind, either express or implied, that is made by our company.

No oral or written information or advice given by our company shall create a warranty or in any way increase the scope of this warranty and you may not rely on such information or advice to do so unless expressly stated herein.

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Since the system is extrapolating is then poured into our free throw shooting is an easy way to give away. Special Teams Efficiency STE is and double-bonus quick, and poor compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Customer will receive a welcome engineers are sports fans, but. Approximately 20, sports betting analytics free are tracked each year in college football. While every model acknowledges defense as the most successful sports bettor of the past 30. College teams "gelling" is a rating system based on opponent-adjusted. The college three-point line is same as Corsi, but it be charged any future reoccurring for this is that it to be canceled out of shots is a skill, and not just a series of. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses as we have a complete. While most MLB models make about 2 feet closer than the NBA's depending where you whole, our offensive projections are based on each and every written materials in the terms or taking high-percentage, close-proximity shots. This analyzes season-long performance from of any kind, either express non-garbage possession by a team's.

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